Nonlinear Dynamics

Quantitative Ecology and Data-Driven Theory

Selected Publications on Nonlinear Dynamics

Sugihara, G. and R.M. May, 1990.  Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series.  Nature 344:734-741.

Sugihara, G. 1994. Nonlinear forecasting for the classification of natural time series. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 348: 477-495.

Sugihara, G., W. Allan, D. Sobel, and K.D. Allan. 1996. Nonlinear control of heart rate variability in human infants. PNAS 93: 2608-2613.

Sugihara G., M. Casdagli, E. Habjan, D. Hess, P. Dixon, and G. Holland. 1999. Residual delay maps unveil global patterns of atmospheric nonlinearity and produce improved local forecasts. PNAS 96: 210-215.

Dixon, P.A., M. Milicich and G. Sugihara, 1999. Episodic fluctuations in larval supply. Science 283: 1528-1530.

Hsieh C.H., S.M. Glaser, A.J. Lucas and G. Sugihara. 2005. Distinguishing random environmental fluctuations from ecological catastrophes for the North Pacific Ocean. Nature 435:336-340.

Maye, A., C.H. Hsieh, G. Sugihara, and B. Brembs. 2007. Order in spontaneous behavior. PLoS ONE 2 (issue 5): e443. Pgs 1-14. (“fruit flies and free will”)

  1. May, R.M., S.A. Levin, and G. Sugihara. Complex systems: Ecology for bankers. Nature 451: 893-895.

Anderson, C., C.H. Hsieh, S. Sandin, R. Hewitt, A. Hollowed, J. Beddington, R.M. May, and G. Sugihara. 2008. Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance. Nature 452: 835-839.

Kilick, A., G. Sugihara, C.N.K. Anderson, J.P. Rozelot, H. Ye, A. Ozuc. 2009. Nonlinear prediction of solar cycle 24. Astrophysical Journal 693 1173-1177.

Scheffer M., J. Bascompte, W.A. Brock, V. Brovkin, S.R. Carpenter, V. Dakos, H. Held, E.H. van Ness, M. Rietkerk and G. Sugihara. 2009. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461:53-59.

Sugihara, G. 2010. On early warning signs. Global Reset. SEED Magazine, January. 60-65.

Deyle, E. and G. Sugihara. 2011. Generalized theorems for nonlinear state space reconstruction.  PLoS ONE 6(3): e18295. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0018295.

Sugihara, G., R.M. May, H. Ye, E. Deyle, M. Fogarty and S. Munch, 2012. Detecting causality in complex ecosystems. Science 338:496-500.

Perretti, Charles T, Stephan B Munch, and George Sugihara. 2013. “Model-free Forecasting Outperforms the Correct Mechanistic Model for Simulated and Experimental Data.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (13) (March 26): 5253–5257.

Deyle, E. R., R.M. May, S. B. Munch, and G. Sugihara 2016. Tracking and forecasting ecosystem interactions in real time. Proc. Roy. Soc. B 283: 2152258.

Ye H. and G. Sugihara, 2016. Information leverage in interconnected ecosystems: overcoming the curse of dimensionality. Science 353:922-925.

McGowan JA., ER Deyle, H Ye, ML Carter, CT Perretti, KD Seger, A. de Verneil, George Sugihara. 2017. Predicting coastal algal blooms in Southern California. Ecology, DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1804

Sugihara, G. 2017. Niche Hierarchy: Structure, Organization, and Assembly in Natural Systems. J. Ross  Publishers. 193 pages.