Selected Publications on Nonlinear Dynamics

Sugihara, G. and R.M. May, 1990.  Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series.  Nature 344:734-741.

Sugihara, G., Grenfell B., and R.M. May. 1990. Distinguishing error from chaos in ecological time series. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London B 330: 235-251.

Sugihara, G. 1994. Nonlinear forecasting for the classification of natural time series. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 348: 477-495.

Sugihara, G. 1995. Prediction as a criterion for classifying natural time series, in: Chaos and Forecasting, ed. H. Tong, World Scientific, Singapore, pgs. 269-294.

Sugihara, G., W. Allan, D. Sobel, and K.D. Allan. 1996. Nonlinear control of heart rate variability in human infants. PNAS 93: 2608-2613.

Sugihara G., M. Casdagli, E. Habjan, D. Hess, P. Dixon, and G. Holland. 1999. Residual delay maps unveil global patterns of atmospheric nonlinearity and produce improved local forecasts. PNAS 96: 210-215.

Dixon, P.A., M. Milicich and G. Sugihara, 1999. Episodic fluctuations in larval supply. Science 283: 1528-1530.

Hsieh C.H., S.M. Glaser, A.J. Lucas and G. Sugihara. 2005. Distinguishing random environmental fluctuations from ecological catastrophes for the North Pacific Ocean. Nature 435:336-340.

Sugihara, G. 2006. Summary notes for the final panel discussion: Observations on new directions for understanding systemic risk in the financial sector. Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the National Academy of Sciences (rapportuer summary).

Maye, A., C.H. Hsieh, G. Sugihara, and B. Brembs. 2007. Order in spontaneous behavior. PLoS ONE 2 (issue 5): e443. Pgs 1-14. (“fruit flies and free will”)

  1. May, R.M., S.A. Levin, and G. Sugihara. Complex systems: Ecology for bankers. Nature 451: 893-895.

2008. Anderson, C., C.H. Hsieh, S. Sandin, R. Hewitt, A. Hollowed, J. Beddington, R.M. May, and G. Sugihara. Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance. Nature 452: 835-839.

2009. Fagre D.B., Charles C.W., Allen C.D., Birkeland C., Chapin F.S. III, Groffman P.M., Guntenspergen G.R., Knapp A.K., McGuire A.D., Mulholland P.J., Peters D.P.C., Roby D.D., and Sugihara G. Thresholds of climate change in ecosystems. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.2 (SAP 4.2) USGS, Dept. of Interior, D.C.

2009. Sugihara, G., and H. Ye. Reducing Chinook salmon bycatch with market-based incentives: individual tradable encounter credits (ITEC). A recommended approach for an industry market-incentive plan. Report and Testimony to the North Pacific Fishery Council (February 2009).

Kilick, A., G. Sugihara, C.N.K. Anderson, J.P. Rozelot, H. Ye, A. Ozuc. 2009. Nonlinear prediction of solar cycle 24. Astrophysical Journal 693 1173-1177.

Scheffer M., J. Bascompte, W.A. Brock, V. Brovkin, S.R. Carpenter, V. Dakos, H. Held, E.H. van Ness, M. Rietkerk and G. Sugihara. 2009. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461:53-59.

Sugihara, G. 2010. On early warning signs. Global Reset. SEED Magazine, January. 60-65.

Deyle, E. and G. Sugihara. 2011. Generalized theorems for nonlinear state space reconstruction.  PLoS ONE 6(3): e18295. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0018295.

Sugihara, G., R.M. May, H. Ye, E. Deyle, M. Fogarty and S. Munch, 2012. Detecting causality in complex ecosystems. Science 338:496-500.

Perretti, Charles T, Stephan B Munch, and George Sugihara. 2013. “Model-free Forecasting Outperforms the Correct Mechanistic Model for Simulated and Experimental Data.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (13) (March 26): 5253–5257.

Deyle, E. R., R.M. May, S. B. Munch, and G. Sugihara 2016. Tracking and forecasting ecosystem interactions in real time. Proc. Roy. Soc. B 283: 2152258.

Ye H. and G. Sugihara, 2016. Information leverage in interconnected ecosystems: overcoming the curse of dimensionality. Science 353:922-925.

McGowan JA., ER Deyle, H Ye, ML Carter, CT Perretti, KD Seger, A. de Verneil, George Sugihara. Predicting coastal algal blooms in Southern California. Ecology, DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1804

Sugihara, G. 2017. Niche Hierarchy: Structure, Organization, and Assembly in Natural Systems. J. Ross  Publishers. 193 pages.