Nonlinear Dynamics

Selected Publications on Nonlinear Dynamics

Runge, J., Bathiany, S., Bollt, E., Camps-Valls, G., Coumou, D., Deyle, E., Glymour, C., Kretschmer, M., Mahecha M.D., Munoz-Mari, J., … Spirtes, P., Sugihara, G., Sun, J., Zhang, K., Zecheischler, J., 2019. Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences. Nature Communications, (10), Article number: 2553.

Rypdal, M. and Sugihara, G., 2019. Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics. Nature communications10(1), p.2374.

Cenci, S., Sugihara, G. and Saavedra, S., 2019. Regularized S‐map for inference and forecasting with noisy ecological time series. Methods in Ecology and Evolution.

Jajcay, N., Kravtsov, S., Sugihara, G., Tsonis, A.A. and Paluš, M., 2018. Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science1(1), p.33.

Munch, S.B., Giron‐Nava, A. and Sugihara, G., 2018. Nonlinear dynamics and noise in fisheries recruitment: A global meta‐analysis. Fish and Fisheries19(6), pp.964-973.

Deyle, E., Schueller, A.M., Ye, H., Pao, G.M. and Sugihara, G., 2018. Ecosystem‐based forecasts of recruitment in two menhaden species. Fish and Fisheries19(5), pp.769-781.

Sugihara, G., Criddle, K.R., McQuown, M., Giron-Nava, A., Deyle, E., James, C., Lee, A., Pao, G., Saberski, E. and Ye, H., 2018. Comprehensive incentives for reducing Chinook salmon bycatch in the Bering Sea walleye Pollock fishery: Individual tradable encounter credits. Regional studies in marine science22, pp.70-81.

Piao, L., Ye, H., Fu, Z., Pao, G.M., Tsonis, A.A. and Sugihara, G., 2018, April. Causal factors contributing to global sea level change on different timescales. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 20, p. 19424).

Ushio, M., Hsieh, C.H., Masuda, R., Deyle, E.R., Ye, H., Chang, C.W., Sugihara, G. and Kondoh, M., 2018. Fluctuating interaction network and time-varying stability of a natural fish community. Nature554(7692), p.360.

Tsonis, A.A., Deyle, E.R., Ye, H. and Sugihara, G., 2018. Convergent cross mapping: theory and an example. In Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences (pp. 587-600). Springer, Cham.

Telschow, A., Grziwotz, F., Crain, P., Miki, T., Mains, J.W., Sugihara, G., Dobson, S.L. and Hsieh, C.H., 2017. Infections of Wolbachia may destabilize mosquito population dynamics. Journal of theoretical biology428, pp.98-105.

Giron-Nava, A., James, C.C., Johnson, A.F., Dannecker, D., Kolody, B., Lee, A., Nagarkar, M., Pao, G.M., Ye, H., Johns, D.G. and Sugihara, G., 2017. Quantitative argument for long-term ecological monitoring. Marine Ecology Progress Series572, pp.269-274.

Sugihara, G. 2017. Niche Hierarchy: Structure, Organization, and Assembly in Natural Systems. J. Ross  Publishers. 193 pages.

McGowan JA., ER Deyle, H Ye, ML Carter, CT Perretti, KD Seger, A. de Verneil, George Sugihara. 2017. Predicting coastal algal blooms in Southern California. Ecology, DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1804

Deyle, E., Maher, M., Hernandez, R., Basu, S., and Sugihara, G. 2016. Global environmental drivers of influenza. PNAS 113: 13081-13086.

Ye H. and G. Sugihara, 2016. Information leverage in interconnected ecosystems: overcoming the curse of dimensionality. Science 353:922-925.

Deyle, E. R., R.M. May, S. B. Munch, and G. Sugihara 2016. Tracking and forecasting ecosystem interactions in real time. Proc. Roy. Soc. B 283: 2152258.

Perretti, Charles T, Stephan B Munch, and George Sugihara. 2013. “Model-free Forecasting Outperforms the Correct Mechanistic Model for Simulated and Experimental Data.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (13) (March 26): 5253–5257.

Sugihara, G., R.M. May, H. Ye, E. Deyle, M. Fogarty and S. Munch, 2012. Detecting causality in complex ecosystems. Science 338:496-500.

Deyle, E. and G. Sugihara. 2011. Generalized theorems for nonlinear state space reconstruction.  PLoS ONE 6(3): e18295. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0018295.

Sugihara, G. 2010. On early warning signs. Global Reset. SEED Magazine, January. 60-65.

Scheffer M., J. Bascompte, W.A. Brock, V. Brovkin, S.R. Carpenter, V. Dakos, H. Held, E.H. van Ness, M. Rietkerk and G. Sugihara. 2009. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461:53-59.

Kilick, A., G. Sugihara, C.N.K. Anderson, J.P. Rozelot, H. Ye, A. Ozuc. 2009. Nonlinear prediction of solar cycle 24. Astrophysical Journal 693 1173-1177.

Anderson, C., C.H. Hsieh, S. Sandin, R. Hewitt, A. Hollowed, J. Beddington, R.M. May, and G. Sugihara. 2008. Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance. Nature 452: 835-839.

May, R.M., S.A. Levin, and G. Sugihara. Complex systems: Ecology for bankers. 2008. Nature 451: 893-895.

Maye, A., C.H. Hsieh, G. Sugihara, and B. Brembs. 2007. Order in spontaneous behavior. PLoS ONE 2 (issue 5): e443. Pgs 1-14. (“fruit flies and free will”)

Hsieh C.H., S.M. Glaser, A.J. Lucas and G. Sugihara. 2005. Distinguishing random environmental fluctuations from ecological catastrophes for the North Pacific Ocean. Nature 435:336-340.

Dixon, P.A., M. Milicich and G. Sugihara, 1999. Episodic fluctuations in larval supply. Science 283: 1528-1530.

Sugihara G., M. Casdagli, E. Habjan, D. Hess, P. Dixon, and G. Holland. 1999. Residual delay maps unveil global patterns of atmospheric nonlinearity and produce improved local forecasts. PNAS 96: 210-215.

Sugihara, G., W. Allan, D. Sobel, and K.D. Allan. 1996. Nonlinear control of heart rate variability in human infants. PNAS 93: 2608-2613.

Sugihara, G. 1994. Nonlinear forecasting for the classification of natural time series. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 348: 477-495.

Sugihara, G. and R.M. May, 1990.  Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series.  Nature 344:734-741.